November outshines December in 2025 retail race

• November delivered 4.4% y/y growth, beating December and outperforming CPI.
• Full-year trading density rose 5.0%, exceeding CPI by 1.8%.
• Western Cape led annual performance; Gauteng topped November growth.

Full-year Clur Index reveals festive shift, resilient growth and rising consumer sophistication across SA’s shopping centre landscape.

South Africa’s retail calendar has officially shifted. The latest Clur Shopping Centre Index confirms that November outperformed December for the second consecutive year, cementing a structural festive season realignment.

November 2025 delivered 4.4% year-on-year trading density growth, outperforming CPI by 0.9%. December lagged at 2.7%.

Super-regional centres led November at 6.2%, while community centres topped December at 4.1%.

The Black Friday effect is entrenched. Consumers are spending earlier and more strategically.

Full Year 2025: Solid and disciplined

‍The national Clur Index for All Centres recorded 5.0% annual growth, outperforming CPI by 1.8%.

Community and smaller centres led full-year growth at 5.5%, followed by regional centres at 5.3%.

National annualised trading density closed at R42,780 per sqm.

The Western Cape led provincial growth at 5.7%, followed by Gauteng at 5.2% and KwaZulu-Natal at 3.6%.

In absolute trading density

• Western Cape: R49,682 per sqm
• KZN: R44,858 per sqm
• Gauteng: R41,214 per sqm

November saw Gauteng briefly take the lead, but the Western Cape retained overall dominance for the year.

Festive growth is losing its dominance

‍Combined November and December growth came in at 3.4%, below the January - October expansion of 5.5%.

In simple terms: the festive period no longer carries the year. The year carries the festive period.

Rental stability continues

The Base Rent to Sales ratio closed at 6.6%, reflecting controlled risk conditions.

December rental growth reached 5.4% year-on-year, outperforming CPI. National base rentals averaged R245.28 per sqm, with super-regionals commanding R330.74 per sqm.

Retail remains disciplined, not overheated.

A Cultural Shift: The belief economy

‍Clur identifies a deeper trend shaping retail strategy: the rise of a “Belief Economy.” Consumers are gravitating toward authenticity, rawness and creativity, rejecting overly polished experiences.

Natural products, visible craftsmanship, candid storytelling and experiential community spaces are gaining traction.

Retail success is becoming cultural as much as financial.

The Bottom Line

‍The message is clear: shopping centre performance in South Africa is becoming smarter, earlier and more culturally aligned.

• November has structurally overtaken December.
• Full-year growth outpaced inflation.
• Provincial competition is intensifying.
• Retail risk remains controlled.
• Consumer sophistication is rising.

The retail sector is recalibrating, not retreating.

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