Rates on hold as fuel shock clouds rate cut path

• SARB holds rates steady as fuel-driven inflation risks rise amid global geopolitical tensions.
• Property market remains resilient, but affordability pressure persists, especially for first-time buyers.
• Industry leaders agree: stability helps, but recovery needs a clear rate-cut trajectory.

Stability meets rising global pressure‍

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady was widely expected, but the context has shifted.

This is no longer just a domestic inflation story. It’s a global one.

Independent economist John Loos highlights an often-overlooked dynamic: while borrowers hoped for relief, depositors benefit from higher rates, with deposit growth significantly outpacing household debt since 2008. This reflects a more balanced financial system than in previous cycles.

But the real pressure now sits outside South Africa. Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are feeding directly into fuel costs, creating renewed inflation risk. That leaves the SARB with limited room to manoeuvre.

Rates are not on hold because conditions are ideal. They’re on hold because risks are rising again. 

Dr Andrew Golding: Stability with a watchful eye‍

Dr Andrew Golding, CEO of Pam Golding Property Group, says the decision provides important short-term stability for homeowners and buyers already dealing with rising fuel and municipal costs. 

However, he cautions that global supply disruptions and sustained oil price increases could delay the rate-cut cycle. If the shock proves temporary, the impact may be limited. But a prolonged disruption could keep inflation elevated and force rates to remain higher for longer.

Despite this, Golding points to the underlying resilience of the housing market, supported by strong lending practices and consistent demand.

While affordability remains under pressure, particularly for first-time buyers, long-term fundamentals such as urbanisation and lifestyle-driven demand continue to support activity.

Samuel Seeff: Hold now, but cut with conviction‍

Samuel Seeff, chairman of Seeff Property Group, agrees the decision to hold was appropriate, but believes the Reserve Bank must now commit to further rate cuts.

He argues that reacting to short-term oil price volatility would be a mistake. With inflation at just 3.0% and the rand relatively stable, there is little justification for maintaining elevated borrowing costs.

The real concern, he says, is that the property market has yet to feel meaningful relief. Previous rate cuts have been too slow and too modest to stimulate real growth, with transaction volumes still lagging well behind previous peaks.

For Seeff, the path forward is clear: economic growth, job creation, and market recovery require a more decisive easing cycle.

Craig Mott: Stability supports confidence‍

Craig Mott of Rawson Property Group views the rate hold as a stabilising force in an uncertain market. 

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“Stability is valuable,” he notes. “It gives buyers and sellers greater confidence in planning and decision-making.” However, he emphasises that the impact of interest rates is uneven. First-time buyers and price-sensitive segments feel the pressure immediately, while higher-end markets remain more resilient.

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External factors, particularly fuel costs and global volatility are now playing a greater role in shaping lending conditions. These influence how banks price risk, directly affecting affordability and access to finance.

Encouragingly, lending appetite remains strong. Well-qualified buyers are still securing competitive rates, supporting ongoing market activity.

The takeaway: confidence is returning, but recovery will be gradual.

Rhys Dyer: Strong local signals, global risks dominate‍

Rhys Dyer, CEO of ooba Group, says the SARB’s cautious stance reflects a global environment that continues to outweigh improving domestic fundamentals.

South Africa has seen encouraging signs:

• Inflation trending lower
• GDP growth improving to 1.1% in 2025
• House prices and buyer activity strengthening

At the same time, the lending environment remains highly supportive. Banks are offering competitive home loan products, including zero-deposit options, helping more buyers access the market. But Dyer warns that rising fuel costs and supply chain disruptions could quickly shift affordability dynamics.

His view is balanced: the property market is stable and active, but the next phase depends on global developments.

Stephan Potgieter: Stability Supports a Resilient Market‍

Stephan Potgieter, CEO of Betterhome Group, says the decision to hold rates provides much-needed predictability for homeowners facing rising living costs.

While the move offers no immediate financial relief, it allows households to plan with greater certainty in an increasingly volatile environment.

Potgieter notes that although economic momentum is improving, geopolitical risks, particularly oil-driven inflation, remain a key threat. This reinforces the need for disciplined financial management, including building buffers and accelerating bond repayments where possible.

Encouragingly, housing market fundamentals remain strong. Increased home loan applications and improved approval ratios point to sustained demand.

In his view, the rate hold may feel underwhelming, but it underpins a stable and resilient market base.

Greg Dart: A “Perfect Storm” driving behaviour shifts‍

Greg Dart, director of High Street Auctions, describes the current environment as a “perfect storm” of rising oil prices, inflation risk, and global uncertainty. 

The SARB’s cautious approach was inevitable, particularly with significant fuel price increases expected to ripple through the economy, affecting transport, food, and services.

However, Dart believes this phase will pass. Once global pressures ease, the Reserve Bank is likely to resume rate cuts to support economic recovery.

In the meantime, these cost pressures are already reshaping buyer behaviour. Rising transport costs are driving demand towards well-located, central properties, particularly older buildings being converted into residential and rental stock, accelerating urban densification trends.

Neil Abernethy: Stability now, cuts later‍

Neil Abernethy of Tyson Properties says the decision to hold rates reflects a pragmatic “wait-and-see” approach in response to global volatility. 

While rising fuel and living costs are placing pressure on household incomes, holding rates steady provides critical short-term stability.

Expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 have now shifted, with any easing likely delayed until later in the year. However, he does not foresee further rate hikes, as policymakers aim to support economic recovery.

Despite external pressures, Abernethy remains confident in the property market’s resilience. Buyers are still active, where price, value, and location align.

Stability today, direction still unclear‍

The SARB has delivered stability. But stability alone won’t drive a full market recovery. The reality is:

• Inflation is currently contained
• Economic growth remains weak
• Global risks, especially fuel are rising

This leaves the Reserve Bank in a holding pattern.

Watching the global triggers‍

The next move depends on two key factors:

1. Global oil prices and geopolitical stability
2. The SARB’s confidence to resume rate cuts

If inflation remains contained and external pressures ease, the outlook improves:

• One to two rate cuts remain possible later this year
• Affordability could improve
• Market activity could accelerate

Until then, the strategy is simple: Plan for stability. Position for opportunity. Because when the rate-cut cycle resumes, the property market won’t wait.

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