Stronger Rand, softer prices signal sixth rate cut ahead

• Strengthening rand eases inflation, boosting optimism for another rate cut.
• Home loan applications up 26% since late 2023.
• Lower rates fuel first-time buyer growth and market confidence.

Positive momentum builds toward another rate cut

‍South Africa’s property and financial markets are gaining momentum as the rand strengthens, and inflation continues to cool. Economists and lenders are now eyeing a possible sixth interest rate cut before year-end, a move that could further ease consumer pressure and reignite market confidence.

“With the rand holding firm, inflation is contained within the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s 3 - 6% target band,” says Bradd Bendall, BetterBond’s National Head of Sales. “A stronger currency helps keep import and consumer costs down, creating space for the Monetary Policy Committee to act.”

Although the MPC held rates steady at its September meeting, Bendall believes November could bring a long-awaited cut, one that would bolster affordability and keep the recovery going.

Lending trends reflect renewed market energy

‍According to BetterBond’s Q3 2025 Property Brief, market activity continues to accelerate. Home loan applications rose 11.6% quarter-on-quarter and 14.6% year-on-year, while overall volumes are 26% higher than their late-2023 low.

“The five rate cuts since mid-2024 have already breathed life back into the market,” says Bendall. “We’re seeing strong buyer sentiment return, especially among first-time purchasers.”

Nationally, bond approvals climbed 17% year-on-year, with eight of nine provinces showing improvement. Gauteng remains the powerhouse, led by Johannesburg’s south-eastern suburbs, Greater Pretoria, and the north-western belt.

Emerging buyer segments and price trends

‍The fastest-growing demand segment comes from households earning under R15,000 per month, where house prices have climbed 9% year-on-year. “This group benefits most from lower rates,” notes Bendall, “and their participation signals improving affordability at the entry level.”

Home prices overall are up 10.7% since 2019, and 8.7% for first-time buyers, reaffirming property’s resilience as a long-term investment. Encouragingly, average deposits have fallen 15% for first-time buyers and 12% for all buyers since mid-2024, helping more households qualify for bonds.

The road ahead

‍If inflation continues its steady descent and the rand holds its current strength, November could deliver the sixth rate cut in the current easing cycle. Falling global food and fuel prices further support the outlook.

“A pre-holiday rate reduction would provide meaningful relief to households and spur additional momentum in housing and construction, both critical for job creation and growth,” says Bendall. “Lower rates mean renewed energy, renewed confidence, and renewed opportunity for South Africans ready to invest in property again.”

Bottom line

‍With inflation cooling, the rand firming, and lending activity climbing, South Africa’s property market is well-positioned for its next leg of recovery. A sixth-rate cut would not just ease pressure, it could accelerate the return of real growth across the housing and construction sectors.

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